Joe Biden has announced tougher targets on the US’s carbon dioxide emissions for the next decade, in a defiant final gesture intended as a “capstone” on his legacy on the climate.

With just weeks to go before Donald Trump enters the White House, the Biden administration is formally filing new plans under the Paris agreement – the global climate treaty from which Trump has vowed to withdraw.

Under the new target, the US would have to cut greenhouse gases by between 61% and 66% by 2035, compared with 2005 levels – a substantial strengthening of current goals that administration officials said would put the US on the path to net zero carbon by 2050.

In a pre-recorded video statement, Biden called his programme of the last four years – including the Inflation Reduction Act, private-sector investments of $450bn in clean energy and manufacturing, and regulations to improve efficiency and conserve land – “the boldest climate agenda in American history”.

This progress would continue, he predicted: “American industry will keep inventing and keep investing. State, local and tribal governments will keep stepping up. And together, we will turn this existential threat into a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform our nation for generations to come.”

Submitting the plan – known as a “nationally determined contribution” or NDC – to the United Nations was more than symbolic, administration officials insisted.

John Podesta, senior adviser to the president for international climate policy, said: “Sub-national leaders across the US can continue to show the world that US climate leadership is determined by so much more than who sits in the Oval Office.”

Despite the near-certainty that Trump will renege on the NDC, administration officials said it was intended to serve several purposes: the plan shows what the US could do to fight the climate crisis; it will serve as a marker for the many state and local governments and businesses that are expected to carry on with climate action, even under Trump; and it could help to encourage other countries to act.

“US climate leadership has motivated the world to do better,” said Podesta, on a call with reporters before the announcement.

All countries are obliged to submit fresh NDCs no later than this February, under the 2015 Paris agreement. In November 2025, world leaders will meet in Brazil for a global UN summit, which is likely to be the last chance for the world to forge a global plan to prevent temperatures reaching 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Temperatures have already breached that limit for one year, but only if they do so consistently for several years will scientists judge the limit – beyond which some of the impacts of the climate crisis are likely to become irreversible – to be lost.

Experts say the NDC target was less stringent than needed to meet the 1.5C limit, as scientists have suggested the US would need to cut emissions by about 62%-65% by 2030, five years earlier than this target.

Gareth Redmond-King, head of the international programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: “This is great ambition for the next four years, given who is taking office – it would have been better if this had been the sort of level set for 2030, which would align it with 1.5C. But over the next four years, we’re likely to see states, cities, companies, organisations and citizens in the US step up and say that they’re still in the Paris agreement.

“If they make progress towards delivering this NDC, then they will ensure Trump fails again this time around, as he failed last time to slow climate action or disrupt international climate talks.”

With Trump in the White House, the target marks what could be achievable without federal edicts, added Debbie Weyl, acting director of the World Resources Institute US thinktank. “[The] target is at the lower bound of what the science demands and yet it is close to the upper bound of what is realistic if nearly every available policy lever were pulled. Assertive action by states and cities will be essential to achieving this goal,” she said.

As well as boosting renewables, Biden leaves a thriving fossil fuel sector – under his presidency, US oil production rose to record levels, and the country became the world’s biggest exporter of natural gas. Last year, the US issued a record 758 new licences for oil and gas extraction projects – almost as many as in the previous three years combined.

While Trump is likely to boost fossil fuels yet further, many analysts believe the US clean-energy sector will expand in the coming years along with the rest of the world. Clarence Edwards, executive director of the E3G USA thinktank, said: “The transition to clean energy will continue to create new American jobs and position the US to be a leader in the innovative climate technologies that will dominate the 21st century.”

The Guardian approached Trump’s team for comment.



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