Research into US wheat commodities by economists at Southampton, in collaboration with UCL, also suggests high uncertainty about the state of future harvests hasn’t destabilised the market.

Findings are published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Wheat is an important crop in the United States used for food production. A small fraction becomes animal feed and the crop isn’t used to generate biofuel. The main buyers of wheat are flour mills, food processors, and direct consumers.

The researchers analysed data on American wheat production, inventories, crop area, prices and wider market conditions from 1950 to 2018, together with records of annual fluctuations in the weather for the same period. This showed strong evidence of an increase in weather and harvest variability from 1974 onwards.

“Before the mid-70s, oil was the dominant driver of wheat price fluctuations in the US, but after this point we see a much stronger influence coming from a wider set of factors that includes weather and food consumption,” explains lead author Dr Vincenzo De Lipsis of the University of Southampton.

“Extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, are becoming more frequent and intense across the world due to climate change. Understanding the impact of this variability on food commodity prices is crucial, as it could have serious implications for food security.”

The authors found that in the US the market system around wheat has remained competitive, functioning well and adapting to the new uncertain climate conditions. The potential for weather fluctuations to adversely affect wheat prices has increased, but in reality this hasn’t been passed on to the market. Wheat prices remain relatively stable, along with the price of associated goods.

The researchers found that this is mainly due to farmers and agricultural industries providing a buffer, smoothing out any bumps in the supply of grain to retailers and consumers, thus reducing shocks to the market that poor harvests may cause. This has been achieved by investment in substantial storage facilities, modern infrastructure and good transport links.

According to the study, the US wheat sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience and flexibility in adapting to the ever-increasing unpredictability of the climate and harvest by modifying its inventory management. At the same time, there is no indication that the wheat market is vulnerable to excessive volatility from the related financial futures market, which can often emerge in commodity markets in response to increased uncertainty regarding future production capacity.

Commenting on what policymakers can take from the research, Dr De Lipsis says: “We have shown that market forces provide a powerful stabilising mechanism to counter the increased variability in weather and harvest observed in the last half a century.

“The market mechanism is one of the most effective instruments that governments have available for climate change adaptation and food security. But for this to work effectively, we need a combination of factors in place: a well-functioning competitive commodity market, a modern infrastructure with extensive transport networks, sufficient food storage capacity and a liquid futures market.

“However, while the system in the US continues to be robust, it’s hard to predict if storage mechanisms will work equally well if faced with unprecedented levels of weather variability — the kind of extreme events that can potentially disrupt the transport network and the very infrastructure on which it is based.”

The authors acknowledge that stability is easier to achieve in developed and more affluent countries, but say that their results underscore the need to prioritise investment in these key areas in developing regions to ensure a reliable and secure food supply in the future.

Until now that hasn’t been a problem, but octopus catches have doubled in recent decades as the world strives to meet the nutritional demands of a rising global population.

How do we ensure octopus fisheries remain sustainable, protecting the longevity of this ancient animal while guaranteeing the world doesn’t go hungry?

An accurate, reliable, cost effective and easy-to-use method to determine an octopus’s age and estimate how fast they grow and reproduce is a good starting point.

A team of Australian scientists has now developed the world’s first step-by-step practical guide to ageing octopus, published in the Marine and Freshwater Research Journal.

Using growth rings on octopuses’ beaks and stylets (internal shells near their gills) to validate their age, University of South Australia marine scientists have created a practical ageing tool for people managing and assessing octopus fisheries.

“Over the past 30 years, various studies have explored different methods to age octopus, but only a small number of researchers worldwide have the hands-on knowledge to execute these methods in the laboratory,” says UniSA marine ecologist Dr Zoe Doubleday.

“It’s critical that we don’t lose this practical scientific knowledge because by determining their age, we can understand the impact of different rates of fishing on the population.”

The guide was developed by UniSA PhD student Erica Durante and research assistant Louise Hosking under the supervision of Dr Doubleday. It formed part of a larger study led by Dr Karina Hall of NSW Department of Primary Industries and funded by the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

“Understanding an octopus’s age helps to keep fisheries sustainable,” Durante says. “If you know a species’ age, you can estimate how fast they grow and reproduce and how much you can catch to keep a fishery sustainable.”

“Age data also tells us how long it takes for an animal to mature, so you don’t end up fishing out immature octopus before they breed. Age is also important for the general conservation and management of a species, whether it is fished or not.”

Many species of animals are aged by counting growth rings in their tissues (similar to tree rings), although it’s a little tricker with octopus because their rings represent days, not years, and methods need to be customised for each species.

An estimated 400,000 octopus are harvested from around 90 countries annually and this number is expected to increase, putting pressure on octopus stocks worldwide.

“By publishing this guide and making the knowledge accessible to anyone, we can help keep fisheries sustainable and ensure this incredible animal continues to survive and thrive,” Dr Doubleday says.

Lead author Katharina Alter of the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) explains why it is essential to summarize and analyze the results of published studies addressing the effects of climate change: “To gain a better understanding of the overall worldwide impact of climate change, marine biologists calculate its effects on all fish or all invertebrate species lumped together. Yet, effects determined in different individual studies can cancel each other out: for example if invertebrate animals such as snails profit from a certain environmental change and other invertebrates, such as sea urchins, suffer from it, the overall effect for invertebrates is concluded to be zero, although both animal groups are affected.”

In fact, snails eat more due to climate change and sea urchins eat less. Alter: “Both effects matter and even have cascading effects: turf algae, the food for sea urchins, grow more while the growth of kelp, the food for gastropods, decreases. The difference in feeding in the two invertebrates causes a shift in the ecosystem from a kelp dominated ecosystem to a turf algae dominated ecosystem, consequently changing the living environment for all other animals living in this ecosystem.”

Important for understanding ecological shifts

Together with colleagues from Wageningen University and 12 other research institutions from the US, France, Argentina, Italy and Chile, dr. Alter developed the new research method that no longer cancels out seemingly contradictory results, but uses both to determine the consequences of climate change on animals’ fitness.

Before the use of this method, ocean warming and more acidic seawater was known to negatively affect fish and invertebrate animals in three general ways: their chance of survival is reduced, their metabolism is increased, and the skeletons of invertebrates are weakened.

Using the new method, the international group of marine researchers discovered that climate change has negative effects on additional important biological responses of fish and invertebrates: physiology, reproduction, behaviour and physical development. Alter: “Because this may result in ecological shifts impacting marine ecosystem structures, our results suggest that climate change will likely have stronger impacts than previously thought.”

Up to 100% of biological processes affected

Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the air have been causing warmer and more acidic seawater for decades, a trend that is expected to continue in the future. However, it is unknown at which speed and to what extent.

Alter and her colleagues calculated the consequences of three projected scenarios of carbon dioxide increase, and thus of ocean warming and ocean acidification: extreme increase, moderate increase at the current speed and — due to possible measures — mitigated increase. Alter: “Our new approach suggests that if ocean warming and acidification continue on the current trajectory, up to 100% of the biological processes in fish and invertebrate species will be affected, while previous research methods found changes in only about 20 and 25% of all processes, respectively.”

Furthermore, the research shows that measures to mitigate atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will help reduce changes in biological processes: in the low carbon dioxide scenario, 50% of responses in invertebrates and 30% in fish will be affected.

Detect hidden impacts

The big gain of the new method, according to Alter, is that more details become known about effects of climate change on species. “The new calculation method weighs the significant deviation from the current state irrespective of its direction — be it beneficial or detrimental — and counts it as impact of warming and acidifying seawater. With our new approach, you can include the broadest range of measured responses and detect impacts that were hidden in the traditional approach.”

His findings are published in the Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences.

Pérez Figueroa studies how impoverished and marginalized communities address environmental inequalities, water governance and disaster resilience.

For his research on social media and risk communication, he collected data from Twitter before the platform changed its name, so he continued to refer to it as Twitter for his study. He analyzed a sample of more than 2,000 tweets from before Hurricane María made landfall to six months after the storm to determine “what the event tells us about the reactions and behavior of people, and what is useful to understand to be better prepared.”

Pérez Figueroa analyzed the timing of the tweets and their geographic distribution. Most of them were made prior to landfall, with smaller peaks of activity at later times — for example, when the Federal Emergency Management Agency deleted Puerto Rican disaster statistics from its website. In the U.S., those tweeting about the hurricane were highly concentrated in Florida, California, New York and Texas, all areas with large Puerto Rican populations.

The sample included tweets from Puerto Rico, despite the collapse of the island’s power grid. Pérez Figueroa said Twitter doesn’t require a strong signal, making sending messages under disaster conditions more accessible.

He identified three main categories of messages: information about what was happening on the ground in Puerto Rico; understanding the social and political conditions that turned the hurricane into a disaster; and emotional messages seeking help or expressing support. Those in Puerto Rico used social media to inform others about their condition and location, ask for and receive help, and document the disaster.

Pérez Figueroa wrote that many tweets about the sociopolitical causes of the disaster blamed local and federal governments for their slow and inefficient response. He said it underscored the use of social media in solidarity and grassroots recovery efforts; as a tool to pressure for prompt government response and the development of policies that address vulnerabilities; and to communicate needs and raise awareness among people not directly affected by the local event about where to donate.

The tweets included information about the Guajataca Dam failure as it occurred.

“Being able to access critical data during and after a disaster can provide the difference between life and death, especially for those on the ground. Recognizing the increasing use of social media for disaster response and aid can increase communities’ disaster resilience, especially when the communities hardest hit have limited communication and are remote, like the case of Puerto Rico,” Pérez Figueroa wrote.

In addition to aiding in preparedness and recovery for future disasters, the research served as a case study to test and refine a framework for examining disaster social media communication, Pérez Figueroa said.

“Understanding how individuals use Twitter during disasters and in the immediate aftermath will be important as hurricanes occur more frequently, and as the public continues to turn to social media as a mainstream news source. Public health and disaster response organizations will benefit from a more detailed understanding as to who and how communication on social media can play a role in mitigating the public health burdens that result from disaster events,” he wrote.

Pérez Figueroa said areas for future research include how traditional media can influence discussions on social media, how narratives on the two differ, whether social media influences emergency responders and policymakers to improve disaster response, and how groups from different socioeconomic levels use social media during disasters.

The study, published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, uses climate and agricultural data from Brazil. It finds that climate change has a cascading effect on farming, leading to increased loan defaults for one of the nation’s largest public sector banks. Over the next three decades, climate-driven loan defaults could increase by up to 7%, according to the study.

The projections in the paper revealed that although temperatures are rising everywhere, there is substantial variation in what that looks like from region to region, which underscores the need to build distinct types of physical and financial resilience.

For example, parts of northern Brazil are predicted to have more dramatic seasonal swings around 2050, with heavier rainfall in winter and drier summers, so policymakers should be thinking about the need for water storage by building dams and reservoirs as well as increasing groundwater storage capacity. Conversely, central Brazil may have fairly steady weather, but will have higher overall temperatures, pointing to a need for heat-resistant crops.

The authors of the paper used a statistical approach pairing past climate data in Brazil with information on crop productivity, farm revenue and agricultural loan performance. They combined this data with climate simulations to predict future weather conditions and their impacts on farming and how those changes will affect financial institutions.

“A difficulty in studying climate impacts on agriculture is that there are all sorts of adaptations happening all the time that aren’t easily observed, but are really important for understanding vulnerability and how risk is changing,” said coauthor Jennifer Burney, professor of environmental science at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy and Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “We were able to distinguish signals from different types of climate impacts and which ones led to this larger financial risk.”

Systematic thinking about building resilience against climate change around the globe

A key objective of the research is to support resilient food security under a changing climate, which requires understanding of when small climate shifts might have outsized impacts, spilling across regions or into other sectors through institutions like trade and banking.

Understanding the systemic risk posed by climate change is especially helpful for policymakers and disaster relief agencies, as climate change has increasingly become a national security threat. To that end, the statistical approach developed in the study could be applied around the globe.

“The technique we developed will help populations identify where they are most vulnerable, how climate change will hurt them the most economically and what institutions they should focus on to build resilience,” said study coauthor Craig McIntosh, professor of economics at the School of Global Policy and Strategy.

For example, some governments in the Western Pacific region buy extra food on the global market in emerging El Niño years, when their own crop productivity suffers. The statistical approach used in the study could help governments around the world understand their own climate conditions and whether local, regional or international institutions will be best placed to address them.

The research could be especially helpful with the development of the loss and damage fund established by the United Nations in 2022. The fund is designed to help compensate developing nations that have contributed the least to the climate crisis but have been facing the brunt of its devastating floods, drought and sea-level rise.

“Our technique could help countries think about where the resilience returns would be highest for the money spent,” said Krislert Samphantharak, professor of economics at the School of Global Policy and Strategy. “This technique also helps to identify where international reinsurance might be needed.”

The “Empirical Modeling of Agricultural Climate Risk” study was also coauthored by Bruno Lopez-Videla, who earned a Ph.D. in economics from UC San Diego in 2021 and Alexandre Gori Maia of the Universidade Estadual de Campinas in Brazil.

Earth Day, celebrated annually on April 22, is a reminder of our responsibility as part of nature to protect and nurture our planet. With Earth Day 2024 coming later this month, it’s the perfect time to plan the personal actions you can take to make a significant difference in reducing human environmental impact.

Here are 10 ideas from leading environmental websites, including EarthDay.org, where this year’s theme is Planet vs. Plastics, Earth911, and other leading sites, to inspire and guide your Earth Day planning.

Reduce Plastic Use. Plastic pollution is a massive environmental issue. Earthday.org suggests reducing plastic consumption by using reusable bags, bottles, and containers, thus minimizing waste and ocean pollution.

Plant a Tree. Trees absorb carbon dioxide, provide oxygen, and support wildlife. Earthday.org encourages individuals to plant native trees in their communities, which can help combat climate change and promote biodiversity.

Join a Cleanup Event. Participating in local cleanup efforts helps remove trash from natural environments, protecting ecosystems and wildlife. Earthday.org lists various cleanup events worldwide, allowing you to get involved in your area

Make Home Upgrades. Implement energy-efficient upgrades in your home, like LED lighting, smart thermostats, and low-flow water fixtures. These changes can reduce your energy consumption and water usage significantly.

Adopt a Plant-Based Diet. Even one plant-based meal a day can significantly reduce your carbon footprint. Greenpeace.org highlights the environmental benefits of reducing meat consumption, including lower greenhouse gas emissions and reduced land and water use.

Sustainable Gardening. Creating a sustainable garden using native plants, composting organic waste, and harvesting rainwater can reduce your direct impact and foster a natural habitat for bees, butterflies, and birds. And this approach to your gardne reduces the need for chemical fertilizers and conserves water.

E-Waste Recycling. Properly recycling electronic waste prevents harmful chemicals from contaminating the environment. Earth911 provides resources to find local e-waste recycling locations.

Carpool or Use Public Transportation. Reducing the number of vehicles on the road decreases air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. The Nature Conservancy advocates for using public transport or carpooling as alternatives to single-person car rides.

Support Renewable Energy. Consider switching to renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind power, for your home. This shift reduces reliance on fossil fuels and lowers greenhouse gas emissions. Start by understanding your home energy impact with a carbon calculator.

Embrace Mindful Consumption. Be conscious of your buying habits. Opt for products with minimal packaging, buy second-hand items, and support environmentally responsible companies to reduce your environmental footprint.

This Earth Day, embrace sustainable practices to protect our planet for future generations. Each small step taken today leads to significant environmental benefits. Individual actions add up to a collective effort to mitigate climate change and preserve our natural world. Let’s build the momentum for a sustainable future.

The paper is the first clear evidence demonstrating an effect of climate change on this charismatic species. Specifically, the paper shows that July rainfall results in reduced July water clarity in loon territories. Reduced water clarity, in turn, makes it difficult for adult loons to find and capture their prey (mainly small fishes) under water, so they are not able to meet their chicks’ metabolic needs. The result is low chick weight and higher chick mortality. Since loons use the same foraging mode across their breeding range, the impact of water clarity on loon breeding success found in Wisconsin is likely to be echoed from Alaska to Iceland.

Piper, in collaboration with Max Gline and Kevin Rose from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, reports several important findings. Over the past 25 years, there has been a consistent decline in water clarity. During the same period, body weights of adult males, adult females, and chicks have also declined. By searching among a large number of environmental variables, the authors were able to pinpoint mean water clarity during the month of July — the month of most rapid growth in chicks — as the strongest predictor of body weight. In a separate analysis, the authors found that rainfall in July impacts water clarity negatively. That is, heavy rainfall in July results in reduced water clarity, whereas light rainfall leads to high clarity and good foraging conditions for loons. Consequently, the rise in rainfall observed in recent decades, attributed to climate change, poses challenges for adult loons in feeding their offspring and diminishes chick survival rates.

The precise way in which rainfall leads to reduced water clarity is currently under investigation. The authors suggest that rain might carry dissolved organic matter (DOM) into lakes from adjacent streams and shoreline areas. But it is also possible that nutrients (such as fertilizers used on lawns by lake residents), pet waste, or even leaks from septic systems might be to blame.

This study represents a unique partnership between diverse fields. Piper’s three-decade-long study of loon behavioral ecology in northern Wisconsin intersects with Gline and Rose’s use of Landsat imagery to calculate freshwater lake clarity. Combining data from these sources has illuminated the cause behind the sharp decline in breeding success in northern Wisconsin. It is now evident that both the loss of water clarity — as well as increasing populations of black flies, which have increased due to greater rainfall — are to blame for the population downturn.

“Few animals on Earth are at once so beloved and so poorly understood as Common Loons,” Piper said. “This partnership between a loon behaviorist and lake ecologists who collect satellite data on water clarity has given us a unique and powerful window onto foraging efficiency and the loon population as a whole that might help us conserve the species.”

Piper is in the process of establishing a second marked study population of loons, equal in size to the first, in Minnesota. There he will determine whether the recent decline in loon breeding success recorded by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources results from a loss of water clarity, as in Wisconsin.